Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.1720 price level coincided with the MACD indicator having moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upside potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

The euro maintained its stability. Investors interpreted the slowdown in U.S. economic growth as a sign that the Federal Reserve may take a more cautious stance on interest rates, which in turn weakened the U.S. dollar. In the medium term, the euro's outlook remains ambiguous. On the one hand, the weakening of the U.S. economy may support the European currency. On the other hand, the fragility of the eurozone economy and geopolitical challenges due to trade tariffs may constrain the euro's growth potential.

Today, investors and analysts will focus on inflation reports from France and Spain, as well as data on changes in consumer spending in France. These indicators serve as key references for assessing the state of the eurozone economy and can significantly impact the euro's value. The dynamics of consumer spending reflect the confidence or concerns of consumers regarding the economic climate and their willingness to spend. An increase in spending indicates optimism and stimulates economic growth. A decline, on the contrary, is a warning sign of possible economic trouble. All of this will be factored into the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the growth of which may prompt the European Central Bank to act more cautiously, thus supporting the euro.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro at a price of around 1.1713 (indicated by the green line on the chart) with a target of rising to 1.1772. At 1.1772, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30–35 pip pullback from the entry point. A bullish outlook for the euro today depends on strong economic data.

Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.1680 level, provided that the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and could trigger a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward 1.1713 and 1.1772 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1680 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1623, where I plan to exit the market and open a buy position in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 pip move back from this level). Selling pressure may return today if the data disappoints.

Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and is just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1713 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and may lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward 1.1680 and 1.1623 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.