empty
06.05.2025 06:49 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on May 6th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1346 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened there. The rise and formation of a false breakout around 1.1346 led to an entry point for selling the euro, resulting in a drop of the pair to the level of 1.1306. The technical picture was not revised for the second half of the day.

This image is no longer relevant

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

The revised upward PMI services data from eurozone countries led to a slight strengthening of the euro against the dollar in the first half of the day. During the U.S. session, figures on the U.S. trade balance and the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index are expected. If the data is weak, which is more likely, pressure on the dollar will return. In the case of strong data, I would prefer to act on a decline in the 1.1306 support area. A false breakout there, similar to what occurred earlier, will be a reason to buy EUR/USD in anticipation of a market rebound with a return to the 1.1346 level. A breakout and retest of this range will confirm a valid entry point, with the next target at 1.1379. The furthest target will be 1.1416, where I plan to take profit. If EUR/USD declines and shows no activity around 1.1306, pressure on the pair will increase significantly, potentially leading to a stronger downward move. In that case, the bears may push the pair down to 1.1269. I plan to act on long positions only after a false breakout forms there. Immediate long entries will be considered only from 1.1219, targeting an intraday upward correction of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

If the euro rises following U.S. data, bears will again need to prove their presence around 1.1346. Only a false breakout there will serve as a signal to enter short positions with a target at the 1.1306 support area, where the moving averages—currently favoring bulls—are located. A breakout and consolidation below this range will be an appropriate setup for selling, targeting 1.1269. The furthest goal will be 1.1219, where I plan to take profit. Testing this level will break the bullish market structure. If EUR/USD rises again during the second half of the day and bears do not act around 1.1346 (already tested once today), buyers may push for a retest of 1.1379. I will only sell there after a failed consolidation. Short positions on a rebound will be considered from 1.1416, targeting a 30–35 point downward correction.

This image is no longer relevant

COT Report (Commitment of Traders):

The COT report from April 29 showed a rise in long positions and a decrease in shorts. Considering that the European Central Bank plans to continue lowering interest rates, this fact remains a limiting factor, preventing the euro from returning to a bullish market. Meanwhile, an upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged, which supports the U.S. dollar. According to the COT report, long non-commercial positions increased by 183 to 196,388, while short positions decreased by 10,586 to 120,591. As a result, the gap between long and short positions widened by 9,285.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is taking place around the 30- and 50-period moving averages, indicating market uncertainty.

Note: The author considers the period and prices of moving averages on the H1 hourly chart, which differs from the standard definition on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator around 1.1290 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Smooths volatility and noise to define the current trend. Period 50 (yellow), Period 30 (green).
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12, Slow EMA – period 26, SMA – period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
  • Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting certain criteria.
  • Long non-commercial positions: Total long open interest held by non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions: Total short open interest held by non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position: The difference between non-commercial long and short positions.
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Neutral
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

GBPUSD: plan para la sesión europea del 03 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El par GBP/USD se desplomó ante problemas políticos

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió allí. En mi pronóstico matutino, presté atención al nivel 1.3713

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 03 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El dólar volvió a caer tras el informe de ADP

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 03 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El dólar volvió a caer tras el informe

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 01 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra fue objeto de una gran venta

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino, presté atención al nivel 1.3766

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:55 2025-07-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 02 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro retrocedió desde el máximo mensual

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino, presté atención al nivel 1.1806

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:55 2025-07-02 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 01 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra continúa su crecimiento

Ayer se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino presté atención al nivel 1.3723

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 01 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro cerró el mes en un nuevo máximo

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 01 de julio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro cerró el mes en un nuevo máximo

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 30 de junio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra mantiene oportunidades de subir

El pasado viernes se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino, llamé la atención sobre

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:49 2025-06-30 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 30 de junio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro permanece en el canal

El pasado viernes se formaron varios puntos de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió. En mi pronóstico matutino, llamé la atención sobre

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:49 2025-06-30 UTC+2

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 20 de junio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra reaccionó con una subida tras la decisión del Banco de Inglaterra

GBP/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 20 de junio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). La libra reaccionó con una subida tras la decisión

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:49 2025-06-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD: plan para la sesión europea del 20 de junio. Informes Commitment of Traders COT (análisis de las operaciones de ayer). El euro se recuperó bastante bien

Ayer se formó un punto de entrada al mercado. Veamos el gráfico de 5 minutos y analicemos lo que ocurrió allí. En mi pronóstico matutino presté atención al nivel

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:49 2025-06-20 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.