empty
02.06.2025 12:52 AM
Euro: Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

The euro continues to experience no issues in its current trajectory. I would even say it hasn't had such a good period in quite a long time. Most importantly, this wasn't driven by strong economic growth in the Eurozone or high European Central Bank rates — it was caused by the total collapse of the U.S. dollar, which had been appreciating for more than 10 years before Donald Trump came to power. Once upon a time, the euro traded at $1.60.

But that's in the past — we should focus on the upcoming week. It will be important in every respect. First, over the weekend, it was reported that Donald Trump has introduced yet another round of tariff hikes. Second, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting. Third, key U.S. labor market and unemployment reports will be released. I've only listed the most important events; there will also be secondary ones, but the market is so overloaded with news right now that they hardly matter.

We will discuss the tariff hikes and U.S. data separately, but for now, let's look at possible scenarios for the ECB meeting. In reality, there are very few scenarios. No one doubts that the central bank will cut all three key rates again, marking the eighth round of monetary policy easing. If not for Trump's policies, the euro would be plunging, as the Federal Reserve has barely touched its rates while the ECB has been actively cutting. Moreover, the Fed may not conduct any easing rounds until the end of the year. If inflation spikes to 4% or 5% due to Trump's tariffs, the FOMC might forgo any easing.

This image is no longer relevant

However, European interest rates have approached "neutral" levels, so the easing cycle could soon end. This event carries little significance for the euro, just like every rate cut. Even if demand for the euro drops because of rate cuts, demand for the dollar is falling much faster, so overall, the euro continues to rise. The ECB might conduct one or two more rounds of easing by year-end to stimulate the economy before Trump's tariffs take full effect. But again, the most significant "bearish" factor for any currency currently does not apply to the euro.

Wave Pattern for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the pair continues to build a bullish segment of the trend. In the near term, the wave structure will depend entirely on news flow related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the bullish segment has begun, and its targets could extend up to the 1.25 area. Thus, I consider buying opportunities with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% of the Fibonacci extension. It should be remembered that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the bullish trend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Pattern for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with a bullish impulse wave. Unfortunately, with Donald Trump in office, markets may experience many shocks and reversals that don't fit neatly into any wave pattern or technical analysis. However, the current working scenario and wave structure remain intact. Wave 3 of the bullish segment is ongoing, with immediate targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I continue to consider buying, as the market shows no desire to reverse the trend at this point.

Main Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are hard to trade and often bring unexpected changes.
  2. If you're not confident in the market situation, it's better not to enter.
  3. Absolute certainty in the market's direction does not and cannot exist. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 8 de julio. Nadie necesita más el dólar, Trump está indignado.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el lunes descendió ligeramente, pero todavía no se puede hablar de una tendencia bajista. Desde el punto de vista técnico, el par permanece

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 8 de julio. Elegante. Donald Trump prolongó los plazos del "período de gracia".

El par de divisas EUR/USD se negoció durante el lunes con una inclinación bajista, aunque probablemente no hubo motivos de peso para el fortalecimiento del dólar. Recordemos que durante

Paolo Greco 07:54 2025-07-08 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 7 de julio. El mercado vuelve a posponer sus expectativas sobre el recorte de tasas de la Fed.

El par de divisas GBP/USD también se mantuvo en el mismo lugar durante el viernes, ya que en ese día la sesión comercial estadounidense, en esencia, no funcionaba. No hubo

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de julio. Elon Musk crea el «Partido Americano»

El par de divisas EUR/USD estuvo inmovilizado prácticamente todo el día viernes. Esto se explica fácilmente, ya que el viernes se celebró el Día de la Independencia

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 3 de julio. Jerome Powell finalmente respondió a Trump.

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el miércoles se desplomó como una piedra. Sin embargo, cualquier caída del par siempre termina en un crecimiento mucho más fuerte. Por lo tanto

Paolo Greco 07:32 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 3 de julio. Una gran ley de Trump aprobada, el dólar en mínimos de 4 años.

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el miércoles se negoció de manera bastante tranquila, si es que se puede aplicar la palabra "tranquila" a la caída diaria del dólar

Paolo Greco 07:31 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 2.

El par de divisas GBP/USD bajó moderadamente durante el lunes, lo cual no representa ningún problema para la moneda británica. La libra esterlina puede permitirse tranquilamente perder 100 o incluso

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 1 de julio. Trump el genio y los estadounidenses ciegos. Parte 1.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó negociándose el lunes dentro de un rango extremadamente estrecho. El lunes hubo pocas noticias, y las que se publicaron no despertaron mayor interés entre

Paolo Greco 07:05 2025-07-01 UTC+2

El Bitcoin convierte a sus competidores en polvo

Expectativas y realidad. Los creadores de criptomonedas las concebían como un universo donde cualquier token podía competir por el dinero de los inversores. En la práctica, aparte del Bitcoin

Marek Petkovich 12:43 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Analisis del par GBP/USD. El 30 de junio. Nóminas no agrícolas, Powell y desempleo.

El par GBP/USD subió 300 puntos durante la semana pasada y, al parecer, no tiene intención de detenerse. Incluso el viernes, el precio no logró iniciar una corrección bajista

Paolo Greco 07:48 2025-06-30 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.