For several days, Bitcoin hovered above the $105,000 level, seemingly waiting. But today, it broke through. We've witnessed a classic consolidation phase ahead of a possible price surge. Now, the key target for growth is $110,000 — and it's closer than it seems.
More importantly, this resistance zone could be breached with such momentum that the next stop may land somewhere around $150,000.
Technically, this is just market mechanics. But the real story unfolds at a different level — where global liquidity, geopolitics, and institutional investments merge into a powerful trend. Let's break down what this means.
M2 as a crypto compass: why Bitcoin's growth is a matter of "when," not "if"
At first glance, Bitcoin is a decentralized asset, independent of government financial flows. But M2 money supply analysis suggests otherwise. One crypto analyst built a model with 68- and 76-day lags between global M2 growth and Bitcoin's price movement, and the model's accuracy leaves little room for skepticism.
The 68-day lag shows a stunning 89.9% correlation over the past 90 days. The longer 76-day model hits 92.2% over 18 months. This isn't just statistics — it's an indicator of Bitcoin's dependence on global liquidity, which is currently trending upward.
Theoretically, Bitcoin should already be above $120,000. Its current level is likely a delay caused by geopolitical noise. But with money supply still expanding and Bitcoin consolidating, we are not at the peak — we are at the beginning of a new bullish cycle.
Whales entering the market: a strategy that allows no mistakes
While retail investors remain nervous, major players are moving decisively. In the spotlight is a crypto whale, namely the firm called Strategy, whose actions are far from ordinary speculation. Between June 9 and 15, Strategy purchased 10,100 BTC at an average price of $104,080. Its total holdings now stand at 592,100 BTC, with an average entry price of $70,666 — an investment worth tens of billions of dollars.
This is a months-long strategy clearly betting on steady growth. Moreover, moves by such large investors can themselves trigger widespread FOMO across the market.
Geopolitics as noise, not as trend: the market learns to ignore threats
The Israel-Iran conflict, Trump's sudden statements, volatility spikes on potential sanctions or tariffs — all of this is losing its ability to influence investor behavior. Large funds have adapted to political noise. They are investing not in a "peaceful tomorrow" scenario but in assets capable of withstanding war, elections, and recessions alike.
Example? Over the past week, $1.9 billion flowed into crypto funds, with $1.3 billion going to Bitcoin. This marks the ninth consecutive week of inflows. Total crypto fund inflows for 2025 have reached $13.2 billion, with $12.9 billion arriving in just the last two months.
This is global capital redistribution — and it's far from over.
Short products are growing — but not the way you think
Amid Bitcoin inflows, short funds betting on BTC declines also attracted $3.7 million last week. Sounds like a reversal signal? Not quite. The total volume of such funds remains at just $96 million — insignificant compared to Bitcoin's trillion-dollar market cap.
These positions are more likely hedges than genuine bets on a collapse — a safety net in case of a "black swan" event. But the fact that major capital isn't leaving the market but instead pouring in signals that institutional investors are not expecting a crash. They are preparing for further growth.
Why Ethereum and altcoins are lagging for now
Ethereum is back in play: ETH-focused funds attracted $583 million this past week — the highest since February. Total investments in ETH funds have reached $2 billion. Meanwhile, on June 13, spot ETFs recorded a small outflow of $2.1 million — minor but telling: investors remain cautious.
The market continues to view ETH as a second-tier asset behind Bitcoin. All attention remains focused on the primary player. Once BTC breaks above $110,000 and advances toward $130,000–$150,000, altcoins will follow. It's only a matter of time.
The second tier — XRP, SUI, and others — also saw inflows. But for now, it remains background noise. The main bet of the season is Bitcoin.
Where's the money flowing? America sets the tone
The primary source of inflows remains the US. All $1.9 billion in investments over the past week originated from there. Germany, Switzerland, and Canada are seeing positive but smaller volumes. Asia and South America recorded outflows — most notably, $56.8 million exited Hong Kong.
This signals a shift in market power. Despite political instability, the West remains the leader of the crypto market. As a result, trends formed in the US will set the tone for the coming months.
Bottom line
Bitcoin is at a temporary equilibrium. Global liquidity is growing, major investors are entering, institutional funds continue to see inflows, and geopolitics is no longer a major drag. All of this points to one thing: Bitcoin is preparing for a breakout.
If the M2 correlation models hold, Bitcoin could break $110,000 as early as July and approach $150,000 by August.
