Forex Analysis & Reviews: 30.04.2025 - NZD/USD: Bullish Prospects...

Live Chat

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing

30.04.2025 12:43 AM

NZD/USD: Bullish Prospects Amid Uncertainty

Although the past week was completely uninformative regarding fundamental indicators, it allowed adjustments to forecasts on economic growth, inflation, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy strategy based on new data.

ANZ Bank revised its inflation forecast. Earlier, it had downgraded its projections for GDP growth, the labor market, and housing prices—each of which alone would be sufficient to expect a more aggressive rate-cutting stance from the RBNZ. On inflation, ANZ maintains a firm position that inflation is virtually under control—despite it having risen in Q1 from 2.2% to 2.5% year-over-year, the highest level since June last year. While claiming that inflation is decelerating, ANZ analysts offer numerous well-founded arguments, which we'll take at face value for now.

According to ANZ, overall inflation will slow to about 1.7% by mid-2026 and rise to 2% by 2027. While such long-range forecasting may seem somewhat naive in today's uncertain environment, the more important takeaway is that projections for GDP, labor, and inflation allow us to forecast the RBNZ's interest rate decisions. Such projections, in turn, shape future yields—and, therefore, the exchange rate.

The trend suggests a faster pace of rate cuts here. Currently, markets expect rates to be lowered to 2.5%, but some are already suggesting the terminal rate may go even lower—to around 2%—especially if the threat of a recession resurfaces alongside disinflation.

BNZ Bank, on the other hand, holds an entirely different view and warns that "inflation is neither dead nor buried. It is already trending upward in annual terms, and early signs indicate inflation expectations—especially among households—are rising (from 4.2% to 4.7%)." The bank cautions the RBNZ against cutting rates too quickly.

All this points to a backdrop of confusion, volatility, and uncertainty. In such a tense environment, it is better to rely on actual capital flows, yields, and futures market positioning, as these reflect the real intentions of major players.

The net short position on NZD narrowed by $346 million last week, bringing the total to—$1.6 billion, the smallest short position since early December last year. The Kiwi remains in negative territory—where it fell immediately after Trump's election as U.S. president—but since February, the trend has shifted in favor of the New Zealand dollar. Its fair value remains above the long-term average, with no signs of a reversal to the downside for now.

Last week, the NZD/USD pair reached strong resistance at 0.6030 but failed to break through on the first attempt. The likelihood of a pullback has increased, with immediate support seen at 0.5896. However, if Friday's U.S. labor market report indicates economic resilience, the pair could fall further—into the 0.5815/50 range. For now, there is little justification for a full-fledged reversal to the downside; the expected decline is viewed as a correction, and a renewed rally is anticipated, with another attempt to gain a foothold above 0.6030.

If successful, there will be no strong technical resistance levels until the local high of 0.6362 (from September 30). However, political uncertainty is unlikely to support such a strong advance.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.