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12.03.2025 02:34 PM
EUR/USD. March 12th. The U.S.-Canada Trade War in Full Swing
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On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair secured itself above the 200.0% corrective level at 1.0857 and continued rising towards 1.0944, which bulls successfully reached by the end of the day. A rebound from this level favored the U.S. dollar, but who still believes in the greenback's strength? A decline towards 1.0857 is possible, but closing above 1.0944 will increase the likelihood of further euro appreciation towards the next Fibonacci level of 261.8% at 1.1056.

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The wave situation on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave broke the previous peak. Thus, the current wave structure indicates a "bullish" trend. However, this growth is impulsive, driven by fears of a U.S. economic slowdown amid Trump's policies. This factor alone has been almost the sole driver of the dollar's recent decline.

Tuesday's economic data provided limited support for the U.S. dollar. However, the only noteworthy report of the day, the JOLTS job openings report, was largely ignored by bearish traders. Job openings in the U.S. in January amounted to 7.74 million, surpassing December's 7.508 million and exceeding traders' expectations of 7.63 million. Nevertheless, the dollar failed to benefit from this report. The market continued selling the greenback amid escalating tensions between Canada and the U.S. In Canada, officials unexpectedly decided that tariffs should be met with counter-tariffs, catching Trump off guard. Since Canadian leadership, under the familiar face of Mark Carney, decided to retaliate, Trump swiftly imposed additional tariffs, raising import duties on steel and aluminum by another 25%. Interestingly, Trump labeled Canada's increased electricity tariffs as "unjustified," asserting that only he has the right to impose tariffs.

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On the four-hour chart, the pair continues its uptrend after breaking above the horizontal channel. The trend remains "bullish," as indicated by the ascending trend corridor. Securing the pair above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.0818 suggests further growth towards the next resistance at 76.4% Fibonacci at 1.0969. A "bearish" divergence in the CCI indicator and overbought conditions in the RSI signaled a potential price drop, but bears failed to act. A rebound from 1.0969 could trigger a decline toward 1.0818.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

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Over the past reporting week, professional traders opened 2,524 new long positions and closed 12,795 short positions. The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" group remains "bearish" but has weakened recently. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 185,000, while short positions amount to 195,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large market players have been reducing their euro holdings, indicating a sustained "bearish" trend. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed continues to favor the U.S. dollar. While the "bearish" advantage is beginning to fade, it is still too early to declare the end of the downtrend. The number of long positions has been rising for five weeks straight, coinciding with Donald Trump's presidency.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde's Speech (08:45 UTC). U.S. – Consumer Price Index (12:30 UTC).

On March 12, the economic calendar contains two significant events. Market sentiment on Wednesday could be strongly influenced by these data releases.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible upon a rebound from 1.0944 on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.0857 and 1.0797. However, who is selling in this market right now? Buying could be considered, but the strong and uninterrupted rally in the pair remains concerning. I remain cautious when prices move in only one direction.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0529–1.0213 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the four-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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