empty
24.03.2025 02:20 PM
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

This image is no longer relevant

At the start of the week, following the release of a weaker Japanese PMI, the yen came under pressure. This, combined with news of narrower and less aggressive retaliatory tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump, has boosted investor confidence and reduced demand for the yen as a safe haven. However, expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates are capping deeper losses for the currency.

According to preliminary estimates, the Au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in Japan fell from 49.0 to 48.3 in March, marking the lowest reading since March 2024 and a nine-month low. It also highlights a decline in the services sector, which contracted for the first time in five months. These data weigh on the yen.

Nevertheless, there are factors supporting the yen and preventing deeper losses—such as BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirming the central bank's readiness to adjust its easing policy if inflation reaches the target level. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also stated that the Bank will closely monitor economic and price developments. This signals that the BoJ will act in accordance with economic conditions.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve raised its inflation forecast but maintained its outlook for two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end. This limits the U.S. dollar's recovery and caps USD/JPY movement near the psychological level of 150.00.

For better trading opportunities today, attention should be paid to the release of U.S. business activity indices and speeches from FOMC members, which may provide additional momentum for USD/JPY. However, the market's primary focus will be on Friday's releases of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index and the U.S. Core PCE Price Index.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY bulls need to break above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which lies just above the psychological level of 150.00. If this level is breached, spot prices may rise toward the 151.00 round figure and then to the monthly high near 151.30.

However, considering that oscillators on the daily chart have yet to show positive momentum, the Asian session low around 149.33 is currently acting as immediate support ahead of the 149.00 round number. A drop below this level could trigger a break of the 148.60 area, opening the door to deeper losses, with an accelerated decline toward last week's swing low around 148.20 and eventually toward the 148.00 round level, or potentially lower.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/JPY pair is regaining positive momentum after a modest pullback the previous day. However, spot prices remain confined within a multi-day range due to mixed fundamental signals, trading near

Irina Yanina 14:39 2025-06-20 UTC+2

USD/CHF: The Pair Struggles to Gain Momentum Amid Conflicting Forces

At present, USD/CHF shows no clear intraday direction and fluctuates within a narrow range just above the 0.8155 level, reflecting market uncertainty during the European session. The Swiss franc

Irina Yanina 14:36 2025-06-20 UTC+2

The Euro Will Retain Its Strength and Investor Interest

During her speech, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that she sees the potential for the euro to play a broader role globally.Her remarks came amid growing geopolitical instability

Jakub Novak 11:25 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Euro Slightly Rises After Lagarde's Speech

The euro saw a modest recovery after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that expanding trade within the region could help offset losses resulting from global fragmentation. Her optimistic

Jakub Novak 11:10 2025-06-20 UTC+2

Donald Trump – A Mastermind of Geopolitical Uncertainty (A Potential Correction in Oil and Gold Prices)

Six months into Donald Trump's presidency, it seems he has already thoroughly exhausted the world with his "brilliant" initiatives, groundbreaking actions aimed at making America great again, and his vivid

Pati Gani 09:49 2025-06-20 UTC+2

The Market Tries to Extinguish the Fire

Markets are digesting Donald Trump's announcement that a decision on U.S. strikes against Iran will be made within two weeks. The White House could have acted at any moment

Marek Petkovich 09:01 2025-06-20 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 20? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Friday. The only report of the day will be the UK retail sales report. No economic data will be released today

Paolo Greco 07:45 2025-06-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 20: The Bank of England Didn't Surprise

The GBP/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Thursday, given the fundamental backdrop available to the market. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve announced the results of its latest meeting

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 20: Summing Up the Fed Meeting

The EUR/USD currency pair traded relatively calmly on Wednesday and Thursday. Recall that the results of the latest 2025 Federal Reserve meeting were announced on Wednesday evening, but we didn't

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-20 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen is showing weakness against the stronger U.S. dollar, with the USD/JPY pair reaching a new monthly high. This rise in the dollar against the yen is mainly

Irina Yanina 20:12 2025-06-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.