01.05.202506:50 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Watch on May 1? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of macroeconomic reports:

There are relatively few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, but that no longer matters much. Yesterday, there were plenty of important publications from the Eurozone, Germany, and the U.S. Even without the German reports, we still had Eurozone and U.S. GDP data, the ADP report, and the PCE index. All of these reports were ignored. U.S. statistics disappointed, yet the dollar rose throughout the day. Yes, the rise was weak, but the macro data should have supported the euro. Especially since Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% in Q1, and for the first time in a while, it showed stronger growth than the U.S. GDP. Thus, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is generally considered quite important, has very little chance of influencing the movement of major pairs today.

Fundamental Events Breakdown:

There's still no point in discussing anything other than Trump's trade war when it comes to fundamental factors. The dollar's decline can continue for as long as Trump keeps introducing new tariffs and increasing old ones. Any escalation could trigger another dollar sell-off. Any de-escalation could strengthen the dollar. The U.S. President has started to soften his rhetoric toward China, but this is not yet de-escalation. Knowing Trump, we wouldn't be surprised if he raises tariffs again right after announcing tariff cuts for China.

Donald Trump stated that he doesn't plan to maintain tariffs on China at 145%, which sparked a wave of relief in all markets. However, the dollar showed no optimism in response. The market sees no concrete signs of de-escalation and thus is in no rush to buy the U.S. dollar. Even on Monday, when there was no news at all, the market preferred selling the dollar. Meanwhile, on Wednesday — when U.S. statistics collapsed — the dollar rose. There's still little logic behind these movements.

General Conclusions: During the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs could move in either direction. For the euro, a flat trend may continue, so a rebound from the 1.1275 level could trigger another upward phase. The British pound still shows more desire to grow, but it has now declined for two days in a row. The macroeconomic background is 90% unlikely to influence traders' sentiment.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by the time required for its formation (bounce or breakout). The less time it takes, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a level on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the period from the beginning of the European session until the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be closed manually afterward.
5. On the hourly time frame, MACD signals should only be used when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
6. If two levels are located too close together (5 to 20 points), they should be treated as a support or resistance area.
7. After a 15–20 point move in the correct direction, Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

What's on the charts: Price support and resistance levels – levels that serve as targets when opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed near them.

Red lines – channels or trendlines that show the current trend and indicate the preferable trading direction.

MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence currency pair movement. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with maximum caution or exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding trend.

Beginner Forex traders should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and sound money management is the key to long-term trading success.