Analysis of Friday's Trades
1H Chart of GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair also traded very erratically on Friday. The price rose in the first half of the day, although there were no reasons for such movement. There were no important events in the UK on Friday and throughout the week. In the U.S., the most crucial data was published in the second half of the day, arguably triggering a rise in the U.S. dollar. In the current circumstances, any somewhat strong American figure is already considered a big win. The dollar strengthened since the unemployment rate did not increase, and NonFarm Payrolls even exceeded forecasts. Still, the U.S. data package can't be called "super-positive," so the dollar's rise was more of a technical reaction. Moreover, the dollar posted stronger gains on Wednesday and Thursday, even though all U.S. data was an evident disappointment. Thus, the macroeconomic background has not helped the dollar—most of it continues to be ignored by market participants.
5M Chart of GBP/USD
On the 5-minute timeframe, no valid trading signal was formed on Friday. Some days earlier in the week offered beginners a chance to enter the market, but Friday was not one of those days. During the European session, it became clear that the 1.3289–1.3297 zone offered no resistance to the price. In the American session, traders were awaiting important data that could have triggered another round of erratic movements in various directions. And that's precisely what happened.
Trading Strategy for Monday:
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair could have started a downtrend long ago, but the market continues to focus solely on Trump, which is why the pound continues to crawl upward with confidence. Thus, the future movements of the pair still depend solely on the American president and his decisions and nothing else. Perhaps the market's attitude toward news will change, but nothing of the sort is being observed for now.
The GBP/USD pair may begin a new upward wave on Monday. Overall, U.S. data this week was disappointing, and there is no reason to expect improvements in future figures. For the dollar, only technical rebounds are possible right now.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be carried out around the following levels: 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3289–1.3297, 1.3365, 1.3421–1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537, 1.3580–1.3598. No important events are scheduled again in the UK on Monday, while only the ISM Services PMI will be published in the U.S. The market could easily ignore this report.
Core Trading System Rules:
- Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
- False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
- Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
- MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
- Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
- Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.
Key Chart Elements:
Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.
Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.
Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.
Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
