empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
26.05.2025 11:46 AM
Forecast for GBP/USD on May 26, 2025
Open trading account Open demo account

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Friday and consolidated above the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3520. The bulls' offensive hasn't let up for a minute—Monday began with another 65-point rally. A rejection from the 1.3620 level could trigger a minor pullback, but bears are currently absent from the market. A consolidation above 1.3620 will increase the chances of further growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 200.0% – 1.3715.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure has become more complex, but remains overall clear. The latest upward wave broke the previous high, while the last completed downward wave failed to break the prior low. Thus, the bearish trend has shifted to a bullish one. Bulls would normally struggle to push above 1.3425 without new developments—such as tariff hikes from Donald Trump—but such news did arrive at the end of last week.

Donald Trump decided to raise all tariffs on EU goods to 50%, citing stalled negotiations with Brussels. While it's hard to say what exactly that means, it's likely that the EU's latest offer didn't satisfy him. The U.S. President seems to want everything at once, often disregarding the interests of the EU or any other country. It's worth noting that this tariff hike is not yet final—more likely, it's a new threat aimed at pressuring the EU into making concessions. Nevertheless, Trump has "recommended" that Congress implement the hike starting June 1.

There's no mystery as to how traders interpreted this news: the U.S. dollar plummeted, and dollar selling continues around the clock. Even today, with no relevant news in play, bulls can keep pushing. There is no longer any struggle between bulls and bears—the bears are simply gone. Dollar bulls were hoping for a pause in the trade war, but that was short-lived.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has already consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3435, which opens the way to the next target at 127.2% – 1.3795. No divergences are forming on any indicators today. The bullish trend is firmly intact and could persist for a long time. Trump clearly doesn't care about the dollar's fate.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

The sentiment among "Non-commercial" traders changed very little last week. The number of long positions decreased by 1,396, while short positions rose by 1,827. Bears lost their advantage long ago. The current spread between longs and shorts is 24,000 in favor of the bulls (88,000 vs. 64,000).

Despite potential headwinds, the pound still faces medium-term downside risks, but recent developments have shifted the market in the long-term. Over the past three months, long positions have grown from 65,000 to 88,000, while shorts have fallen from 76,000 to 64,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has eroded, and the COT data shows that traders are in no rush to buy it. Regardless of the broader news background, the dollar continues to fall due to Trump's actions.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and UK:

Monday contains no noteworthy economic events. The news background will not influence market sentiment for the rest of the day.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

  • Selling: Possible today from 1.3620 (hourly chart) targeting 1.3520, but keep in mind the absence of sellers.
  • Buying: Previously valid on a close above 1.3344–1.3357 targeting 1.3425 (already hit). New long positions were possible after a close above 1.3435 on the 4-hour chart.
  • The next bullish targets are 1.3620 and 1.3715.

Fibonacci Levels:

  • Hourly chart: 1.3205–1.2695
  • 4-hour chart: 1.3431–1.2104
Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The USD/JPY pair is holding above the key 144.00 level amid continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Strong household spending data released today in Japan has strengthened expectations
Irina Yanina
18:12 2025-07-04 +02:00
1270
Fundamental analysis
NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast The NZD/USD currency pair is recovering after bouncing from the 0.6030 level, which marks a weekly low, and is attempting to gain further positive momentum. This suggests a break
Irina Yanina
18:08 2025-07-04 +02:00
1570
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. July 4th. Bears continue to retreat from the market

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded once again from the 1.1802 level and declined almost to the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1712. As of Friday morning, the pair
Samir Klishi 10:53 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Forex forecast 04/07/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, SP500 and Bitcoin

Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful
Sebastian Seliga 10:51 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD. July 4th. Independence Day

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the support zone of 1.3611–1.3633, reversed in favor of the pound, and now has every chance to continue rising
Samir Klishi 10:01 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 4, 2025

The main event of yesterday largely aligned with our forecasts — specifically, the anticipated "number play" occurred. But it was done very delicately, just enough to halt the growth
Laurie Bailey 06:01 2025-07-04 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 4, 2025

On the daily chart, the British pound has consolidated below the MACD line. It had an excellent opportunity to also consolidate below the support level of 1.3635, but that attempt
Laurie Bailey 05:58 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Natural Gas Forecast for July 4, 2025

Natural Gas (NG) The daily balance indicator line decisively halted yesterday's price surge — Thursday ended with a decline of 2.63%. The drop, in turn, was held back
Laurie Bailey 05:53 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Trading Signals for BITCOIN for July 4-8, 2025: sell below $110,610 (7/8 Murray - 21 SMA)

On the other hand, if Bitcoin consolidates above the 7/8 Murray level, it is likely that it will reach the strong resistance of the 8/8 Murray level located at $112,500
Dimitrios Zappas 05:17 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for July 4-8, 2025: sell below $3,350 (21 SMA - 3/8 Murray)

If gold recovers above the 200 EMA at 3,327, we could expect a pullback to 3,345. This area represents strong resistance and could be seen as a selling opportunity
Dimitrios Zappas 05:15 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Trading Signals for EUR/USD for July 4-8, 2025: sell below 1.1795 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

The eagle indicator has been giving a negative signal since June 30, so our strategy will remain bearish. As long as the euro price trades below 1.1795, we continue
Dimitrios Zappas 05:13 2025-07-04 UTC+2

EUR/USD. July 3rd. The Most Important Day of the Week

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 1.1802 level, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and showed a slight decline. However, by Thursday morning, the pair had returned
Samir Klishi 12:10 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:58 2025-07-04
Forecast
Relevance up to 06:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 4th (Review of Morning Trades)
18:20 2025-07-04
Trading plan
Relevance up to 06:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on July 4th (Review of Morning Trades)
18:16 2025-07-04
Trading plan
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:52 2025-07-04
Forecast
Relevance up to 07:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders – July 4th (U.S. Session)
18:53 2025-07-04
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.