29.05.202500:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Bitcoin Emerges from Wall Street's Shadow: Why the Coming Months Could Be Pivotal for the Crypto Market

The announcement that Cantor Fitzgerald, one of the largest U.S. primary dealers, is launching Bitcoin-backed lending has reshaped the crypto market. Managing $2 billion in capital for this venture, the firm has already struck deals with FalconX, Maple Finance, Anchorage Digital, and Copper. This is not just a symbolic step; it is a turning point. Bitcoin is officially entering the category of "respectable assets" fit for financial collateral.

In the crypto market, this represents more than just a PR win; it signifies a significant infrastructural change. The entrance of major players into the BTC-based lending sector introduces a stable, demand-backed capital flow. This leads to lower volatility, greater trust, and Bitcoin's gradual establishment as a systemic asset.

Washington Is Positioning Bitcoin as a Strategic Asset

Political momentum is reinforcing institutional maturity. At the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, White House Digital Assets Advisor Beau Hines called Bitcoin "digital gold" and confirmed that the U.S. government plans to expand its BTC reserves. But what matters most isn't the rhetoric—it's the legislative foundation.

Senator Cynthia Lummis and other lawmakers introduced the BITCOIN Act, proposing the acquisition of up to 1 million BTC for U.S. strategic reserves using confiscated assets. This translates into a potential market order worth tens of billions of dollars over five years—not theoretical, but real-time market purchases.

If passed, the bill would make the U.S. the largest long-term holder of Bitcoin, setting a precedent for other nations. Unlike ETFs or private funds, government reserves are not sold during market corrections, panic sell-offs, or influenced by Elon Musk's tweets.

A Chart Pattern and a Policy Breakthrough: The Market Nears a Tipping Point

Technically, Bitcoin is consolidating after reaching a local high of $111,970. The price forms a symmetrical triangle in the $108,900–$109,000 range on the 2-hour chart. A breakout above $109,631 (Fibonacci level) could open the door to $113,300 and possibly a new all-time high.

Indicators are neutral but poised for a shift: the MACD is near a bullish crossover, and the RSI is approaching overbought territory. This suggests a potential for movement in either direction, but the technical setup, paired with the fundamentals, gives bulls the upper hand.

A drop below $108,233—especially $107,078—would be a warning sign, with potential pullbacks to $105,905 or even $102,190. However, given the strong fundamentals and falling volatility (below 3%), such dips are not yet signaling a trend reversal.

May: A Month of Stress Testing and Shaking Off the Skeptics

Bitcoin gained 18.66% in May, setting a new record. After a 3.9% pullback, buyers returned. Currently trading around $108,600—just 2.8% off the peak—this resilience alone is a bullish signal.

Institutional interest, more than $15 billion in open futures positions, and Bitcoin's dominance over altcoins (above 60%) form a solid bullish backdrop.

NPL and NUPL indicators suggest the market has not entered a euphoria phase, leaving room for further growth. Long-term holders continue to hold, reducing supply pressure—a classic pattern in the middle of a bull cycle.

Cycle History and a Forecast Through 2025: Cyclop's View

Analyst Cyclop, known for accurate cycle-based forecasts, predicts the next Bitcoin peak in November–December 2025, with the bull market ending in February–March 2026. His projections are based on previous peak and halving timelines: November 2013 ($1,242), December 2017 ($19,891), and November 2021 ($69,000)—all 7–8 months post-halving.

If this pattern holds, the current cycle's peak could exceed $200,000 by the end of 2025. Cyclop also notes that BTC has surpassed its previous highs around the same time post-halving as in past cycles. The structure remains intact despite institutional shifts and increased regulation.

Banks Free Up Capital — Market Reacts to Liquidity Surge

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to ease SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) rules, potentially unlocking up to $250 billion in liquidity. This is massive in market terms: more bank capital means more debt market buying, lower bond yields, and more incentives to invest in alternative assets like BTC.

Ten-year Treasury yields have already fallen to 3.95%. This is a direct trigger for Bitcoin interest, especially as money market funds, despite offering 5%+ returns, become less attractive amid falling yields.

Bitcoin has already responded: OTC trading volume is down, and exchange reserves have dropped to 115,000 BTC—a clear sign of institutional accumulation. Once reserves dry up, buying pressure will shift to open markets, pushing prices even higher.

Liquidity Policy Is Not Just Background Noise — It's a Catalyst

The proposed SLR reform isn't just deregulation—it's a liquidity injection "at the stroke of a pen" without printing new money. With the Federal Reserve constrained by inflation and no political will for a new QE program, markets seek alternatives. With its fixed supply and growing trust, Bitcoin looks like that alternative.

Even if the reform isn't fully passed, its mere discussion impacts market psychology. With BTC trading within 3% of its all-time high, any new trigger could ignite another explosive rally.

Conclusion: Growth Is Inevitable — The Only Question Is the Pace

Bitcoin is entering a new phase. Institutionalization, sovereign adoption, regulatory reform, and historically reliable cycle structures create an environment where an upward trend seems not just likely but logical.

Short-term pullbacks are possible, but the market structure and behavior of large players point to continued growth. Over the next 6–12 months, the probability of surpassing the all-time high and reaching $150,000–$200,000 becomes increasingly tangible.