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04.06.2025 12:28 AM
The U.S. Economy Will Suffer More Than Others from Tariffs
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Donald Trump is jeopardizing his own economy. This was the conclusion reached by the G-20 countries at their recent summit. According to summit participants, the discussions focused on the trade tariffs imposed by Trump. The trade war will inevitably lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, impacting individual countries as well. However, the U.S. economy is expected to suffer the most, having to deal not only with Trump's own tariffs—which will trigger a spike in inflation and higher unemployment—but also retaliatory tariffs from other countries. Conference participants also noted that the economic uncertainty that emerged in 2025 will significantly reduce investment volumes.

Undoubtedly, major economies concluded that signing trade agreements would ease tensions and reduce uncertainty but would not fully solve the existing problems. It would only mitigate the consequences for the economy.

A reminder: starting on Wednesday, U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will increase to 50%, which will lead to a significant rise in the cost of these metals within the U.S., as well as all goods that are made from these metals. As a result, companies that manufacture goods in the United States, as Trump advocates, will encounter increased costs and need to raise their prices. This, in turn, is likely to lead to a decrease in their revenues. I find it challenging to determine who exactly Trump is opposing: is it injustice, or is he working against his own country and its citizens?

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Nevertheless, the facts are clear. The market understands that the situation is unlikely to improve anytime soon. Meanwhile, Trump is preparing to impose tariffs not just on countries but on specific companies—American companies that "for some reason" do not want to relocate their factories to America. Accordingly, demand for the U.S. dollar may occasionally increase as markets seek a breather. However, the upward trends for both instruments are likely to continue.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

After analyzing the EUR/USD, I conclude that it continues to build an upward trend segment. In the near future, the wave layout will entirely depend on news related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The formation of wave 3 of the upward trend segment has begun, and its targets may extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I am considering buying with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to the 423.6% Fibonacci level. It's important to remember that a de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but at the moment, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

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Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure for GBP/USD has transformed. We are now dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. Unfortunately, under Trump, the markets could experience many more shocks and reversals that do not correspond to wave patterns or technical analysis. However, for now, the working scenario and wave structure remain intact. The formation of the upward wave 3 continues, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. Therefore, I am still considering buying, as the market shows no sign of reversing its trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
  2. If you are not confident in the market situation, it's better to stay out.
  3. Absolute certainty in market direction is impossible. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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