empty
25.06.2025 08:44 AM
The Market Has Overcome the Barrier

Neither the story of China's DeepSeek, the White House tariffs, nor the Israel-Iran conflict could halt the victorious advance of U.S. stock indices. The Nasdaq 100 has already updated its record highs amid a renewed surge in interest in artificial intelligence technologies. The S&P 500 is now within arm's reach of its all-time highs. The stock market consistently overcomes challenges while aiming high.

The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict became another reason to buy the broad market index. Iran's retaliatory strikes on U.S. military bases were symbolic in nature, and Donald Trump forced both Jerusalem and Tehran to fall silent. The twelve-day war rattled financial markets, but as expected, the geopolitical conflict was short-lived. Oil prices returned to previous levels, and investors who bought the S&P 500 during the dip are now in the money.

Fear has subsided, and greed has returned to the markets—as evidenced by the decline in the VIX volatility index.

VIX Fear Index Trend

This image is no longer relevant

Investors are confident that the ceasefire will gradually lead to a complete resolution of the conflict, and they are beginning to shift their focus to other developments: the state of the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve monetary policy, corporate earnings, artificial intelligence technologies, and trade wars.

As long as the U.S. economy remains strong, inflation continues to slow, and Wall Street experts forecast a 2.8% increase in earnings per share for S&P 500 companies in Q2, the broad index can look to the future with optimism. This is especially true since Jerome Powell did not rule out an earlier-than-expected cut in the federal funds rate—provided inflation continues to ease and the labor market freezes.

Trends in Media Mentions of Various Events

This image is no longer relevant

Gradually, investor focus is shifting back to trade wars. Tensions are mounting as the 90-day White House tariff delay approaches its expiration. The U.S. has failed to reach an agreement with the EU, which is preparing retaliatory measures worth $116 billion if tariffs on U.S. imports rise to Trump's previously announced 50% level.

The massive tariffs announced on America's Independence Day once pulled down the S&P 500. Will this time be different? The broad stock index feels supported by the President and his team. The rhetoric of the U.S. administration often matters more to equities than macroeconomic data releases.

This image is no longer relevant

In my opinion, traders have adapted to buying the S&P 500 on dips. Even if the White House escalates trade wars, the broad market index is unlikely to fall significantly.

Technically, on the daily chart, the bulls have taken another step toward restoring the uptrend in the S&P 500. The all-time high is within reach, and there are fewer and fewer doubts that it will be surpassed. Previously opened long positions should be maintained. Targets are set at 6200 and 6400.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Igor Kovalyov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EU Prepares to Retaliate

Over the weekend, it was revealed that the United States will impose 30% tariffs on all goods from the European Union starting August 1. In response, the EU is preparing

Jakub Novak 11:21 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Trump Continues to Pressure U.S. Trade Partners (Potential Resumption of USD/JPY and Ethereum Growth)

The United States, through its president, continues to exert economic—and arguably geopolitical—pressure on its trade partners, which is having a ricochet effect on global trade and financial markets. But, oddly

Pati Gani 10:00 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Do Markets Like Tariffs?

Everyone sees what they want to see. For Donald Trump, the S&P 500 rally to record highs is proof that the market likes tariffs. For investors, it's a sign

Marek Petkovich 09:06 2025-07-14 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 14? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Let us recall that last week, there were also no significant reports, speeches, or any other notable events in either the European

Paolo Greco 06:30 2025-07-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 14. Keep Calm and Carry On

The GBP/USD currency pair showed a rather significant decline on Friday. Overall, the British currency has been falling for two weeks now, and this is a very important fact that

Paolo Greco 04:33 2025-07-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 14. The Fed's and Trump's Positions Remain Unchanged

The EUR/USD currency pair continued a mild and weak downward movement on Friday. As we have mentioned many times before, the current move is a pure correction, so there

Paolo Greco 04:33 2025-07-14 UTC+2

The Dollar Is Becoming a Risk Currency

In my reviews, I've regularly noted that the decline in demand for the U.S. dollar is not just a matter of price depreciation. We're talking about a currency that

Chin Zhao 00:42 2025-07-14 UTC+2

The Market Believes Trump Will Back Down

What is happening in the financial markets right now can only be described as a paradox, and many economists are noting it. Take the U.S. stock market, for example: initially

Chin Zhao 00:42 2025-07-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview: U.S. Inflation, Retail Sales, ZEW Indices, and China's GDP

The upcoming trading week will be marked by U.S. inflation data. Reports on CPI and PPI growth will be released, along with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. However

Irina Manzenko 00:41 2025-07-14 UTC+2

U.S. Dollar. Weekly Preview

In the upcoming week in the U.S., reports on inflation and industrial production will be released, along with a few other moderately interesting indicators. The most important one is undoubtedly

Chin Zhao 00:41 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.