empty
30.06.2025 12:34 AM
U.S. Dollar – Weekly Preview

This image is no longer relevant

The American news background will once again play a key role for the dollar and, therefore, for the market and the vast majority of instruments. This past week, only two events triggered a new wave of selling in the U.S. currency. First, the conflict in the Middle East came to an end (for the time being), and then a new round of pressure was placed on Jerome Powell. Both events were connected, in one way or another, to Donald Trump, which is why the U.S. president will remain the main newsmaker.

There will also be no shortage of economic news next week. A new month is beginning, which means that the U.S. will release labor market and unemployment data. Let me remind you that the Federal Reserve closely monitors the labor market and is prepared to intervene (i.e., cut interest rates) if signs of cooling emerge. Therefore, this data is very important for the U.S. dollar. Already next year, we may see a significant rate cut due to a change in Fed leadership. The more news suggesting a shift toward policy easing, the greater the risk of a decline in the dollar.

On Tuesday, Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak again, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published. On Wednesday, we will see the ADP employment report, which often sparks interest. On Friday, the focus will be on the Nonfarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate.

This image is no longer relevant

Based on all of the above, Trump's news will once again take center stage, followed by economic data. There's no doubt that the U.S. will deliver plenty of important headlines. The wave structures of both instruments allow for a transition to a corrective wave set, but a negative news background for the dollar could result in the extension and complication of the current bullish wave segment.

Wave Analysis for EUR/USD

Based on the analysis of the EUR/USD pair, I conclude that it continues to form an upward trend segment. The wave structure remains entirely dependent on the news background, particularly related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy, and there are still no positive developments. The targets for wave 3 could extend up to the 1.2500 area. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the uptrend, but currently, there are no signs of a reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

Wave Analysis for GBP/USD

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Trump, the markets may still face numerous shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave structure; however, for now, the working scenario remains intact. Trump continues to take steps that undermine the demand for the dollar. The targets for the ascending wave 3 are now located around the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to the 261.8% Fibonacci extension from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are harder to interpret and often lead to changes.
  2. If you're uncertain about market behavior, it's better to stay out.
  3. You can never be 100% certain about the direction of price movement. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Overview – July 29: The U.S. Dollar Finally Starts to Trust Trump

The GBP/USD currency pair continued to decline on Monday. The British pound began its downward movement last week, and at that time, we concluded that purely technical factors were behind

Paolo Greco 03:44 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 29: A Complete Failure for the European Union

On the 4-hour timeframe, the EUR/USD currency pair sharply reversed downward on Monday and posted a strong decline. In our opinion, this move is quite significant and telling. Let's examine

Paolo Greco 03:44 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EU–US Trade Deal. Part 2

On Monday, I got the impression that very few people in Europe knew what concessions von der Leyen was about to make. The American side of the negotiation was likely

Chin Zhao 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EU–US Trade Deal. Part 1

Four days before August 1 — the final deadline for the negotiations — the European Union and the United States announced the signing of a trade agreement. This deal

Chin Zhao 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Correction or Trend Reversal?

"A celebration with tears in our eyes" — that's perhaps the most accurate way to describe the European reaction to the trade agreement signed between the U.S

Irina Manzenko 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Will the Dollar Regain Its Former Glory?

Everything new is well-forgotten. At the end of 2024, bearish forecasts for EUR/USD were widespread. The argument was that White House tariffs would slow eurozone GDP while accelerating inflation

Marek Petkovich 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

Bitcoin Sheds Excess Baggage

Trends give way to consolidations. Consolidations pave the way for new trends. That's the nature of the market. And Bitcoin is no exception. The inability of the bulls to resume

Marek Petkovich 00:45 2025-07-29 UTC+2

The EU–US Deal Is a Disaster for the European Economy

The euro quickly resumed its decline after a morning rally during Asian trading. Apparently, investors have come to realize that the trade deal between

Jakub Novak 19:10 2025-07-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the strengthening U.S. dollar. News of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union, reached on Sunday, along with

Irina Yanina 18:51 2025-07-28 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure for the third consecutive day, with the NZD/USD pair trading below the key 0.6000 level and attempting to hold near the 0.5975 support

Irina Yanina 12:15 2025-07-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.