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04.07.2025 05:58 AM
GBP/USD Forecast for July 4, 2025

On the daily chart, the British pound has consolidated below the MACD line. It had an excellent opportunity to also consolidate below the support level of 1.3635, but that attempt failed, slightly complicating further progress for the bears. Even the leading Marlin oscillator is not attempting to approach the boundary with the downtrend territory.

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In such a situation, the pound may remain in a sideways range for another two days. However, this aligns with a wait-and-see tactic — on Wednesday, Trump's delayed tariffs come into effect. The market may shift its strategy from "sell America" to "buy America," as the entire large-scale campaign implies. The main target appears to be in the 1.3140–1.3208 range (the extremes of April 3 and May 12).

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On the four-hour chart, the MACD line prevented the price from consolidating below the 1.3635 level. But today, as the line rises, the task becomes easier — a consolidation below the level will automatically result in a break below the MACD line. The Marlin oscillator has reset and is ready to join the price in achieving its objective.

Laurie Bailey,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
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