empty
17.07.2025 12:45 AM
Australian Dollar Awaits Labor Market Data

The Australian dollar experienced a slight decline following the release of China's GDP data, which the market interpreted with some ambiguity. While a 5.2% GDP growth rate appears solid, it was accompanied by a sharp drop in real estate prices—typically a leading indicator of an approaching crisis—as well as a slowdown in retail sales. Since approximately 50% of Australia's exports go to China, the Aussie is particularly sensitive to such signals.

The probability of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at the upcoming August meeting stood at around 80% as of Wednesday morning, down from 89% the previous week. This reassessment may be linked to expectations that Q2 inflation will exceed forecasts. The inflation report is due in two weeks, but for now, all attention is on the labor market report, scheduled for release on Thursday.

Net short positioning on AUD increased by 239 million over the reporting week, reaching -4.853 billion. Despite the fact that AUD/USD has been steadily rising since February—coinciding with the announcement of new U.S. import tariffs (excluding a sharp drop around early April's "liberation day," which was quickly reversed)—long-term investors continue to hold net short positions on the Australian currency.

This is largely driven by geopolitical factors—the outcome of the U.S.-China standoff remains highly uncertain. For Australia, China is the primary trading partner. Global financial institutions expect that Australia will be adversely affected by the conflict, unlike, for example, New Zealand, whose export flows are more diversified across China, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and the EU.

The fair value price currently lacks clear direction.

This image is no longer relevant

In the long term, the AUD/USD trend remains bullish, but further upward movement may prove more difficult. The support level at 0.6485 remains intact, with a limited risk of falling below it. The primary upside target of 0.6680/0.6710 is still in place, although the move toward it may be drawn out.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Evgeny Klimov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The EU–US Deal Is a Disaster for the European Economy

The euro quickly resumed its decline after a morning rally during Asian trading. Apparently, investors have come to realize that the trade deal between

Jakub Novak 19:10 2025-07-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the strengthening U.S. dollar. News of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union, reached on Sunday, along with

Irina Yanina 18:51 2025-07-28 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The New Zealand dollar remains under pressure for the third consecutive day, with the NZD/USD pair trading below the key 0.6000 level and attempting to hold near the 0.5975 support

Irina Yanina 12:15 2025-07-28 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold is attempting a recovery despite the broader strength of the U.S. dollar, which is undermining the global rebound in the precious metal. U.S. President Donald Trump and European

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Yen Continues to Weaken

The annual inflation rate in Tokyo declined from 3.1% in June to 2.9% in July. The core index, excluding food and energy prices, also slowed from 3.1% to 2.9% year-over-year

Kuvat Raharjo 09:56 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Markets to face trial by fire

Markets continue their upward sprint as worst-case scenarios fail to materialize. Donald Trump threatened Japan and the EU with 30% tariffs - they got 15%. With China, talks reached 145%

Marek Petkovich 09:23 2025-07-28 UTC+2

The U.S. and the European Union Reach a Difficult Trade Agreement

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar following reports that the United States and the European Union had reached a hard-fought agreement under which the EU will face 15% tariffs

Jakub Novak 09:16 2025-07-28 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 28? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Thus, unless Donald Trump makes some new high-profile statements or decisions, traders may face low volatility and a flat market on Monday

Paolo Greco 06:18 2025-07-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 28: Very little time left before August 1

The EUR/USD currency pair is maintaining a bullish tone on the 4-hour timeframe. While the British pound has shown a fairly sharp decline in recent days, the euro

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 28: The Pound's Unexpected Collapse and Weak UK Data

The GBP/USD currency pair declined significantly on Friday. This drop in the British pound is somewhat puzzling, as there were no strong fundamental reasons behind it. We do not believe

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.